Six Sigma Imperceptibles
IN THE MOVIE THE SILENCE OF
THE LAMBS, FBI agent Clarise Sterling
(played by Jodi Foster) is trying to track
down a serial killer “Buffalo Bill.” She
seeks the help of Hannibal “The Cannibal”
Lecter (played by Anthony Hopkins), a
psychologist jailed for his barbarous ways
in a maximum-security prison for the
criminally insane. Clarise goes to the
prison and gives the entire file of evidence
on Buffalo Bill to Dr. Lecter. When she
comes back the next day to see if he has
any insights about the killer’s identity or
whereabouts, Lecter tells her, “It’s all
there. Everything you need to find him is
in the file.” When she pleads with Lecter
for more help he asks, “What does he [the
killer] do?” Clarise answers, “He kills
people and removes their skin.” Dr. Lecter
responds: No. No. That’s just incidental.”
Our response to Six Sigma’s oftentouted
advantage is similar. When senior
executives ask about Six Sigma’s specific
benefits, the modal answer is that it is a
way to improve products and processes
with fewer than 3.4 defects per million
opportunities (DPM). But 3.4 defects per
million opportunities is just incidental.
The real benefits are new ways of thinking
and a culture of accountability that
manifest when a company earnestly
pursues Six Sigma.
Customer Thinking:
Specs & Dashboards
A Six Sigma company has to go beyond
asking customers whether they are satisfied.
To determine the number of defects
being produced, you need a specification
to which you can compare your performance.
When a Six Sigma company talks
to its customers, it won’t just restate that
the customer wants “better service” or is
concerned about delivery problems. It
must continue the conversation until it
determines that what the customer really
expects are complete orders at least 98
percent of the time and deliveries three
times a week at 3:00 p.m. ±1 hour. Now
the company has a spec that it can
compare its performance against to
determine a DPM.
Imagine having this level of specificity
and data for all the primary elements of
your key customers’ value propositions
arranged in a dashboard. This would allow
you to have a much different conversation
with your customers at the end of the
month/quarter/year than in the past.
With specs and dashboards, you can
start the conversation with: “This is how
we are doing against what you told us is
important to you. Here is where we have
improved and here is where we still have
work to do.” It is a conversation based on
facts and complete data, not
just one or two vignettes. It
also vividly demonstrates
how intent you are about
addressing your customer’s
needs.
Moreover, fact-based
conversations about changes
in performance lead quite
naturally to the quid pro
quo: “If we can consistently
meet these product/service
specifications, would you be
willing to give us more of
your business?” Even with
no 3.4 DPM necessarily in
sight, pursuing Six Sigma has lead to a
completely different form of customer
interaction.
Statistical Thinking:
Variation
Becoming a Six Sigma organization means
embracing the fundamentals of statistical
thinking:
· All outcomes are produced through a
series of interconnected processes
· All processes vary
· The keys to success are understanding
and reducing variation
Many organizations have embraced
process thinking, but few understand the
significance of variation. This means they
are at a distinct disadvantage in the race to
get better and improve
service to customers.
Most organizations report and manage
averages. But averages are an abstraction
and are often misleading. This is
especially true when averages are used to
represent the customer experience.
Customers don‘t experience your
average—they experience your variability.
For example, consider three customers’
experiences shown in Figure 1. The histogram
displays three months of data on
the percentage of the total order actually
delivered to customers. How well does a
three-month average of
94.5 percent describe
what these three
customers experienced
over the last quarter? If
you told Customer C,
for example, that your
average was 95 percent
would Customer C
care? Many companies,
with a high average
performance along
some dimension, are
surprised at the
diversity of customer
survey responses about
their performance. If
the amount of variability shown in Figure
1 underlies their high average, should they
be surprised?
Understanding the importance of variation
gives Six Sigma companies another
avenue for improving. They move their
averages by understanding and reducing
the variation of processes that affect
customers.
Causal Thinking &
Leading Indicators
A third kind of thinking that permeates Six
Sigma organizations is causal thinking.
This is often expressed as y =f (x1, x2, x3….. xn). “y” is some outcome you care about.
“f” is read “is a function of’ and the x1,
x2,
Six Sigma Imperceptibles
Arthur G. Davis, Principal, The Davis Group
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Six Sigma Imperceptibles
continued from Page 1
To give you a sense of the
improvement, a Three-Sigma
golfer, playing 100 rounds of
golf per year, would miss one
putt per round.
A Six-Sigma golfer would miss
one putt every 163 years.
x
n are the key factors that influence the
outcome you are trying to drive. When
people start to view the world in this fashion,
they start to think, “If I want y to
move, I have to move x1, x2, x3 ... xn. I
wonder what drives x1, x2, x3 ... xn?” For example, suppose you are trying to
reduce the cycle time for credit approvals. Let’s say the credit approval
process consists of four steps: submission, keying, decision
and notification. The overall cycle
time is obviously a function of the cycle
time of each step. The cycle time of each
sub-step would be a function of other variables
such as resource availability, number
of steps, wait queues, method of transmission/
notification, amount of missing
information on the application form etc.
How do you begin to identify the key
Xs? The first step is to make the invisible
variation visible. This means making
pictures of the variation, as in Figure 1.
Pictures, more than monthly reports, lead
people to generate hypotheses, which are
the precursors of identifying and fixing the
key Xs.
Consider Figure 1. Immediately questions
arise: Why is there so much variation
in this process? What types of customers/
products/orders are out in the tail? Why is
the first mode at 95 percent, not 98? Why
is there a second mode in the low 80s’? Is
there a “process within the process”? Pictures lead to questions and hypotheses, to
which Six Stigma’s broad array of
statistical and Design of Experiment tools
can be applied to help definitively identify
the key Xs.
Once the key Xs have been identified,
they become leading indicators or early
warning systems for the performance of
the Ys (i.e., outcomes) you are trying to
improve. By attending to leading
indicators, you can head off problems
before they affect customers or adversely
impact financial performance.
This is the beginning of an internal
business dashboard (that augments the
customer dashboard described previously).
These dashboards are displayed and discussed
in open forums and show, in no uncertain
terms, whether you’re getting
better.
Even if you never achieved 3.4 DPM,
what would it mean to have employees in
your company thinking about causes, generating
hypotheses, tracking leading
performance indicators to head off
problems before they reach customers,
with measures posted prominently so you
can tell if you’re improving or not?
Common Language and
Accelerated Learning
Today’s global businesses operate across a
diverse range of geographies and cultures,
offering a wide range of products and services
from different business units. How
does the whole become more than the sum
of the parts? How does a management
team create a quilt from separate pieces of
cloth? One way is with a shared set of
values. Though there can be issues with
values “translating” across cultures and
geographies, there is no question that
common values can go a long way toward
binding people together in spite of
different orientations and agendas.
Six Sigma companies have another
tool. They become more than the sum of
their parts through a shared problem solving
language that creates common
ground and accelerates the learning
process across organizational boundaries.
Despite internal organizational differences,
the need to increase customer effectiveness
and shareholder efficiency are
common denominators. As Six Sigma
methodology becomes part of the way
business is done, everyone thinks about
and attacks efficiency and effectiveness
challenges with a similar approach.
Imagine people from service and finished
goods business units, Human Resources,
Finance and Operations, Mexico,
Germany, and South Korea sharing a
framework for talking about and attacking
problems. This common approach/
language facilitates best-practice sharing
and can dramatically accelerate the learning
process and speed of improvements.
3.4 DPM for most processes
is impossible. And therein lies
its power. Not only does it
establish a scoreboard and thus
some friendly competition between
teams, but it also establishes a big
stretch target.
You’re asking people to aim for
performance levels far beyond
what they consider possible.
In the face of increasingly fierce global
competition, it would be a mistake to underestimate
the kind of competitive advantage
that can be achieved by accelerating
the learning process organization-wide.
Stretch Thinking: B.H.A.G.s
In college, a 90 or 93 percent gets you an
“A.” But in a Six Sigma company, 93 per -
cent is 3 sigma. That’s 66,000 DPM—
which represents a lot of room for
improvement. Moving from Three Sigma
to Six Sigma represents a dramatic
increase in performance. To give you a
sense of the improvement, a Three-Sigma
golfer, playing 100 rounds of golf per
year, would miss one putt per round. A
Six-Sigma golfer would miss one putt
every 163 years.
3.4 DPM for most processes is impossible.
And therein lies its power. Not only
does it establish a scoreboard and thus
some friendly competition between teams,
but it also establishes a big stretch target.
You’re asking people to aim for
performance levels far beyond what they
consider possible. With the challenge to
keep up with their peers and the challenge
of a big goal, people are constantly thinking
and talking about how they can move the
needles on the customer and business
dials. Big goals can transform
organizations
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Six Sigma Imperceptibles
continued from Page 2
In their book Built to Last, Collins and Porras
point out that one of the characteristics that
distinguishes companies that do well over
long periods of time from those that are just
around for a long time is that the former
pursue big, hairy, audacious goals (BHAGs
for short).
3.4 DPM is a BHAG. Even if you don’t
achieve it, you’ll improve processes far
beyond what you would have been able to
achieve without those goals.
A Culture of Accountability
A broad quest for Six Sigma, both inside and outside operational areas,
catalyzes a top-to-bottom change in thinking and in the way work gets done. Six
Sigma companies understand customer specifications. They establish process and
dial owners and set stretch goals for improving those measures. They
continuously monitor outcome and leading indicator performance and report
performance in open forums. And, it is easy for them to openly share performance
breakthroughs across businesses and geographies. The synergistic, net effect of
these changes is the creation of a “culture of accountability.” Accountability to customers
to drive out variation and meet their specifications;
accountability to shareholders to
improve efficiency of internal processes;
and accountability to employees to make
the investments and remove roadblocks so
efficiency and effectiveness improvements
can be achieved and maintained.
When (or even if) 3.4 DPM is
achieved is incidental. The
transformation of your company will
have occurred long before.

About the Author

Art Davis is principal of The Davis Group, a Chicago area
consultancy specializing in business process improvement and
total quality. He has delivered many training programs in Six
Sigma for Motorola, Caterpillar, ITW, Litelfuse and other firms.
For more information call: 800-959-0632.
www.artdavisgroup.com
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